Do you know if there’s any truth to the rumor that Bill Clinton offered Putin NATO membership for Russia? If true that would seem to undermine some of your contextualizing hypotheses. “We respect you Vlad, we want you in the club, come on join us.”
In regard to where Putin lays on the mentally ill spectrum, IMHO, what’s more important is where he is on the character disorder spectrum. I’d say he’s definitely elevated himself to the status of a man-of-history by joining the ranks of famous men who have ruthlessly and needlessly gone to war to improve their status. He’s got more status now than he ever has—status as someone who is willing to murder children in order to earn our respect.
If one accepts your suggestion that the west has driven Putin “crazy,” the question becomes, now what do we do with this aggrieved resentment filled psychopathic monster we’ve created? We’re already showing very deep disrespect towards him and his nation. It doesn’t appear that that’s going to improve anytime soon.
Historically when some humans decide that other humans are less-than-human, bad things happen. “Those humans aren’t treating me like I’m a worthy human I’ll show them how human I am and be the worst kind of human possible.”
There is kind of a rationality to that way of thinking but it’s obviously flawed—it’s immature egoic self centered thinking. Historically these sort of high chair tyrants, who have tremendous power, have done us great harm. When have mad dogs responded to diplomacy?
Perhaps Biden should make Trump a special envoy to Russia. Trump could become our dog whisperer and calm that boy down.
This analysis is spot on, and the advice to Western leadership (I'd also include the media) "[to put] themselves inside the heads of foreign leaders and seeing how the world looks from there" is more salient and urgent than ever. This doesn't absolve foreign leaders of the crimes they committed but would help a great deal to minimize the consequences (and avert future calamity).
The current conflict stems in large part from the disrespect most Western countries have displayed towards Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This disrespect of Russian struggles, history, and culture (and failure to fully acknowledge its enormous sacrifices in WWII) helped propel Putin at the helm of this country in which many still see him as having saved Russia from wholesale collapse.
The anti-Putin rhetoric may be justified in view of his main responsibility for prosecuting a disastrous campaign (and given signs that he's experiencing a mental breakdown), but besides fueling more anger and paranoia on Putin's part, many people inside Russia will likely perceive such rhetoric (and any signs of military involvement) as being directed against them as a nation. Western leadership (and media) have to find a way to walk a very thin tightrope here, because failing that, the world may face even direr consequences. We all have skin in this game and so a lot to lose if this situation goes further south.
So looking in the rearview mirror today we realize we can choose to learn or not to learn. Historically speaking we are all victims of intervening by politicians thinking somehow we can create a better outcome. Somehow we are ineffective at directing our leaders because the machine is too big and bureaucratic to navigate.
To me being a realist is knowing we can’t simply unturn the wheel and we shouldn’t have said we will eventually put NATO in Ukraine or Russia shouldn’t have invaded Crimea as well as Chechnya or Georgia. These examples only inform future geopolitical decisions.
What is a solid solution moving forward? We leave NATO expansion off the table in Ukraine, Sweden, Finland and Russia withdraws from Crimea? Better yet have Russia join NATO? Well unfortunately invasions and crimes against humanity preclude that - the same ones we chose in every war from Korea to Iraq/Afghanistan makes it seem as if we are calling the kettle black. Including collateral damage from drones and missiles that killed an estimate 4-500k innocent and not innocent in Iraq?
So I’d love to hear a resolve or ideas how Bob or anyone else on this thread will get us out of use of small or large nuclear and conventional weapons/warfare and decrease the suffering in Ukraine and Russia.
Q: WHAT IS THE PATH TO DE-ESCALATION AND THEN A SOLID SOLUTION?
I haven’t heard or read anything that answers because I don’t feel like anyone really knows… lots of conjecture and what ifs.
What is the path forward looking behind us all and to own our actions?
I relate songs of justice/injustice. It reminds me of the lyrics of this Sting song.
Okay, but once agains, why is Putin's ONLY choice, if NATO expansion is provocative and nasty, to invade and attack civilians and pregnant mothers? Did Putin simply NOT have the choice to be nice, to offer Ukraine a good economy and unspoiled politics? Why is the burden all on the west to do whatever Putin wants, which is your point of view, no? Under cognitive empathy, Putin gets whatever he wants, right?
Nonzero, ”I feel strongly that if we don't try to figure out why bad things happen--including what motivates people to do bad things--the world will remain mired in pointless conflict.”
On that note, searching for motives and factors to examine, has anyone here considered the so-called Heartland Theory? It originated over 100 years ago from an English politician John Mackinder and taken over by the US.
The idea is simply. Russia is the biggest landmass on earth, with the biggest natural resources of any country. China has the largest population, and is now rising economically. Germany is the technological powerhouse in Europe. If Germany would be good friends with these neighbours to the east, it would be the most powerful alliance ever. THAT has to be avoided by all means. Geopolitics.
Brzezinski wrote that no single power may gain control over this area; and unrestricted economic and financial access for the world community (who might that be) must be ensured. Thus, Russia's efforts to determine access alone cannot be accepted.
There maybe more to NATO expansion than what meets the eye…
If this war escalates further, Europe will be the big loser. And who is the winner?
What’s going on inside Putin’s head? I'm not sure if that is a good question to ask? I’m thinking of Alex Rosenberg’s book on the Theory of Mind as applied in history.
Okay, Doctor RIGHT. I agree 100% with you're psychoanalysis. Putin's not crazy. And also with your analysis considering human motivation regarding the importance of status. I encourage readers to read your book 'The Moral Animal'.
And ... considering respect & humiliation - that's HUGE.
Is it rational? Well, we are where we are and it is what it is.
The bar for sanity is high and that's what we should be striving for, as it is present in all of us. Most of us are on the continuum of insanity because of causes and conditions, and can vary in our manifestations. Any discussion about the sanity of someone who intentionally harms and kills, or orders others to do so, is completely moot to me. Go ahead and discuss all you want while people suffer.
Alternative hypothesis: Ukraine was becoming more democratic and capitalistic and economically successful and this was a threat to Putin the dictator. P.S. The starvation (millions died) imposed on Ukraine by Stalin in the early 1930s during the collectivization of agriculture has to be in the minds and hearts of Ukrainians.
Do you know if there’s any truth to the rumor that Bill Clinton offered Putin NATO membership for Russia? If true that would seem to undermine some of your contextualizing hypotheses. “We respect you Vlad, we want you in the club, come on join us.”
In regard to where Putin lays on the mentally ill spectrum, IMHO, what’s more important is where he is on the character disorder spectrum. I’d say he’s definitely elevated himself to the status of a man-of-history by joining the ranks of famous men who have ruthlessly and needlessly gone to war to improve their status. He’s got more status now than he ever has—status as someone who is willing to murder children in order to earn our respect.
If one accepts your suggestion that the west has driven Putin “crazy,” the question becomes, now what do we do with this aggrieved resentment filled psychopathic monster we’ve created? We’re already showing very deep disrespect towards him and his nation. It doesn’t appear that that’s going to improve anytime soon.
Historically when some humans decide that other humans are less-than-human, bad things happen. “Those humans aren’t treating me like I’m a worthy human I’ll show them how human I am and be the worst kind of human possible.”
There is kind of a rationality to that way of thinking but it’s obviously flawed—it’s immature egoic self centered thinking. Historically these sort of high chair tyrants, who have tremendous power, have done us great harm. When have mad dogs responded to diplomacy?
Perhaps Biden should make Trump a special envoy to Russia. Trump could become our dog whisperer and calm that boy down.
LOL
I'm still reading, but I mistrust two implicit assumptions.
1, that rational and crazy are mutually exclusive states and not points on a spectrum;
2, that rational people aren't going to nuke each other.
Those might not be Bob's assumptions, but they're easy takeaways from what I've read so far.
This analysis is spot on, and the advice to Western leadership (I'd also include the media) "[to put] themselves inside the heads of foreign leaders and seeing how the world looks from there" is more salient and urgent than ever. This doesn't absolve foreign leaders of the crimes they committed but would help a great deal to minimize the consequences (and avert future calamity).
The current conflict stems in large part from the disrespect most Western countries have displayed towards Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This disrespect of Russian struggles, history, and culture (and failure to fully acknowledge its enormous sacrifices in WWII) helped propel Putin at the helm of this country in which many still see him as having saved Russia from wholesale collapse.
The anti-Putin rhetoric may be justified in view of his main responsibility for prosecuting a disastrous campaign (and given signs that he's experiencing a mental breakdown), but besides fueling more anger and paranoia on Putin's part, many people inside Russia will likely perceive such rhetoric (and any signs of military involvement) as being directed against them as a nation. Western leadership (and media) have to find a way to walk a very thin tightrope here, because failing that, the world may face even direr consequences. We all have skin in this game and so a lot to lose if this situation goes further south.
So looking in the rearview mirror today we realize we can choose to learn or not to learn. Historically speaking we are all victims of intervening by politicians thinking somehow we can create a better outcome. Somehow we are ineffective at directing our leaders because the machine is too big and bureaucratic to navigate.
To me being a realist is knowing we can’t simply unturn the wheel and we shouldn’t have said we will eventually put NATO in Ukraine or Russia shouldn’t have invaded Crimea as well as Chechnya or Georgia. These examples only inform future geopolitical decisions.
What is a solid solution moving forward? We leave NATO expansion off the table in Ukraine, Sweden, Finland and Russia withdraws from Crimea? Better yet have Russia join NATO? Well unfortunately invasions and crimes against humanity preclude that - the same ones we chose in every war from Korea to Iraq/Afghanistan makes it seem as if we are calling the kettle black. Including collateral damage from drones and missiles that killed an estimate 4-500k innocent and not innocent in Iraq?
So I’d love to hear a resolve or ideas how Bob or anyone else on this thread will get us out of use of small or large nuclear and conventional weapons/warfare and decrease the suffering in Ukraine and Russia.
Q: WHAT IS THE PATH TO DE-ESCALATION AND THEN A SOLID SOLUTION?
I haven’t heard or read anything that answers because I don’t feel like anyone really knows… lots of conjecture and what ifs.
What is the path forward looking behind us all and to own our actions?
I relate songs of justice/injustice. It reminds me of the lyrics of this Sting song.
https://youtu.be/RprN07SfFzc
If we seek solace in the prisons of the distant past
Security in human systems we're told will always always last
Emotions are the sail and blind faith is the mast
Without the breath of real freedom we're getting nowhere fast
If God is dead and an actor plays his part
His words of fear will find a place in your heart
Without the voice of reason every faith is its own curse
Without freedom from the past things can only get worse
Sooner or later just like the world first day
Sooner or later we learn to throw the past away
Sooner or later just like the world first day
Sooner or later we learn to throw the past away
Sooner or later we learn to throw the past away
History will teach us nothing
History will teach us nothing
Our written history is a catalog of crime
The sordid and the powerful, the architects of time
The mother of invention, the oppression of the mild
The constant fear of scarcity, aggression as its child
Sooner or later
Sooner or later
Sooner or later
Sooner or later
Convince an enemy, convince him that he's wrong
Is to win a bloodless battle where victory is long
A simple act of faith
In reason over might
To blow up his children will only prove him right
History will teach us nothing
Sooner or later just like the world first day
Sooner or later we learn to throw the past away
Sooner or later just like the world first day
Sooner or later we learn to throw the past away
Sooner or later we learn to throw the past away
History will teach us nothing
History will teach us nothing
Know your human rights
Be what you come here for
Know your human rights
Be what you come here for
Know your human rights
Be what you come here for
Know your human rights
Be what you come here for
Okay, but once agains, why is Putin's ONLY choice, if NATO expansion is provocative and nasty, to invade and attack civilians and pregnant mothers? Did Putin simply NOT have the choice to be nice, to offer Ukraine a good economy and unspoiled politics? Why is the burden all on the west to do whatever Putin wants, which is your point of view, no? Under cognitive empathy, Putin gets whatever he wants, right?
Nonzero, ”I feel strongly that if we don't try to figure out why bad things happen--including what motivates people to do bad things--the world will remain mired in pointless conflict.”
On that note, searching for motives and factors to examine, has anyone here considered the so-called Heartland Theory? It originated over 100 years ago from an English politician John Mackinder and taken over by the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Grand_Chessboard
https://www.cia.gov/library/abbottabad-compound/36/36669B7894E857AC4F3445EA646BFFE1_Zbigniew_Brzezinski_-_The_Grand_ChessBoard.doc.pdf
The idea is simply. Russia is the biggest landmass on earth, with the biggest natural resources of any country. China has the largest population, and is now rising economically. Germany is the technological powerhouse in Europe. If Germany would be good friends with these neighbours to the east, it would be the most powerful alliance ever. THAT has to be avoided by all means. Geopolitics.
Brzezinski wrote that no single power may gain control over this area; and unrestricted economic and financial access for the world community (who might that be) must be ensured. Thus, Russia's efforts to determine access alone cannot be accepted.
There maybe more to NATO expansion than what meets the eye…
If this war escalates further, Europe will be the big loser. And who is the winner?
What’s going on inside Putin’s head? I'm not sure if that is a good question to ask? I’m thinking of Alex Rosenberg’s book on the Theory of Mind as applied in history.
https://www.amazon.com/How-History-Gets-Things-Wrong-ebook/dp/B08BT2THMN/ref=sr_1_2?crid=FA6CBCYOVRSM&keywords=alex+rosenberg&qid=1646845234&s=books&sprefix=alex+rosenberg%2Cstripbooks%2C177&sr=1-2
Okay, Doctor RIGHT. I agree 100% with you're psychoanalysis. Putin's not crazy. And also with your analysis considering human motivation regarding the importance of status. I encourage readers to read your book 'The Moral Animal'.
And ... considering respect & humiliation - that's HUGE.
Is it rational? Well, we are where we are and it is what it is.
Who decides?
The bar for sanity is high and that's what we should be striving for, as it is present in all of us. Most of us are on the continuum of insanity because of causes and conditions, and can vary in our manifestations. Any discussion about the sanity of someone who intentionally harms and kills, or orders others to do so, is completely moot to me. Go ahead and discuss all you want while people suffer.
Thanks for the references. I’ll check them out.
Alternative hypothesis: Ukraine was becoming more democratic and capitalistic and economically successful and this was a threat to Putin the dictator. P.S. The starvation (millions died) imposed on Ukraine by Stalin in the early 1930s during the collectivization of agriculture has to be in the minds and hearts of Ukrainians.
Which Putin bio are you reading? So many good ones