>> Re: Russia's economy is faring much better under sanctions than people expected.
I came across a DW News interview with Jeffrey Sonnenfeld from Yale. He seems to think the economic numbers coming out of Russia these days aren't trustworthy.
From some quick googling, he has a history of pro sanctions/pro Russian economic disaster writing, so he's not exactly unbiased. OTOH, he seemed to make some good points. The plain fact is oil and gas prices are way off their 2022 highs and I'd bet on cash flow problems for Russia during 2023, especially with the discounts they seem to be selling their oil at.
Finally, I can't see why China would want Russia to come out of this particularly well or why they'd want to do anything to stop the conflict. As long as Russia doesn't become unstable, wouldn't their interests best be served by a low simmer forever war between Russia and the West?
Russia has never been more dependent on China than it is right now and I'd guess that makes Russia pretty pliable during trading negotiations. Plus, as long as the conflict stays "hot," China gets to watch a relatively unimportant geopolitical player become the main focus of the entire Western world, especially the US. Every western news segment on Putin's was crimes is one less news segment on Xi's human rights abuses.
>> Re: Russia's economy is faring much better under sanctions than people expected.
I came across a DW News interview with Jeffrey Sonnenfeld from Yale. He seems to think the economic numbers coming out of Russia these days aren't trustworthy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0resswOds
From some quick googling, he has a history of pro sanctions/pro Russian economic disaster writing, so he's not exactly unbiased. OTOH, he seemed to make some good points. The plain fact is oil and gas prices are way off their 2022 highs and I'd bet on cash flow problems for Russia during 2023, especially with the discounts they seem to be selling their oil at.
Finally, I can't see why China would want Russia to come out of this particularly well or why they'd want to do anything to stop the conflict. As long as Russia doesn't become unstable, wouldn't their interests best be served by a low simmer forever war between Russia and the West?
Russia has never been more dependent on China than it is right now and I'd guess that makes Russia pretty pliable during trading negotiations. Plus, as long as the conflict stays "hot," China gets to watch a relatively unimportant geopolitical player become the main focus of the entire Western world, especially the US. Every western news segment on Putin's was crimes is one less news segment on Xi's human rights abuses.