I think what Mickey means is someone could come up now and ACCUSE E.G. Fauchi of "lying about covid to help steal the election," and if you're eroding the safeguards, it quickly won't matter whether they were REALLY lying or whether they were REALLY wrong or whether they were REALLY trying to help affect the election.
I've been all-in for giving Ukraine as much assistance as practical for their counteroffensive. Now though, I'm coming around to Bob's view that it's time for Ukraine to head to the negotiating table. It's unclear if a deal is possible, but the odds of anything good coming from several more years of killing seem slim.
Despite the tragedy of it all, imo it was worth letting Ukraine take its shot at getting some land back just based on the hopes that the Russian army was still a hot mess. Unfortunately, Russian fighters appear much more formidable than they were in early 2022 and it's unlikely anything miraculous will happen if Ukraine keeps slogging along. I also agree with Bob's concern about the increasing risk of Russian gains as time goes on.
IMO, the really long game for Ukraine is to negotiate for a peace deal now that gives them a rock-solid security guarantee, integration with the west, and some help rebuilding their economy. If Ukraine plays their cards right, bolsters their institutions with a turn westward, and doesn't get bogged down with corruption, in a decade or two they'll likely be able to buy or conquer the Donbass and Crimea from what's left of a mostly failed Russian state.
Let's face it, the future of Russia is very bleak regardless of what happens in Ukraine. This recent report from BP has some very dire predictions for Russian oil and gas revenue over the next 20-30 years.
PDF page 17, report page 32 >>> As a result, Russian oil production declines from around 12 Mb/d in 2019 to between 7 and 9 Mb/d in 2035 across the three scenarios.
PDF page 21, report page 40 >>> Depending on the scenario, BP projects that global oil demand will fall from 100 mbpd today to between 35 and 80 mbpd by 2045.
If BP's middle or most aggressive projections for the drop in global oil demand come true, it will be catastrophic for Russia's economy. That's completely independent of what happens with sanctions and investment flows to Russia over the next couple of decades. Russian oil is very costly to extract compared to most other countries and as global oil demand falls, only the cheapest to extract oil will be economic. If global oil demand drops from 100 mbpd to 50 mbpd, it's a near certainty that most Russian oil will remain locked underground indefinitely, uneconomic to extract.
The likely lack of oil revenue, coupled with the near total collapse of investment inflows (that will persist even if sanctions are lifted), will seal Russia's fate of doom.
Imagine getting extremely deep into the campaign and Biden having a "senior moment" in a debate and being led off the stage confused like McConnell recently did(same age). Rehashing 2020 except with more toxic baggage like the Trump indictments, Hunter drama, etc. seems like a poor choice but that seems to be what America wants.
I think what Mickey means is someone could come up now and ACCUSE E.G. Fauchi of "lying about covid to help steal the election," and if you're eroding the safeguards, it quickly won't matter whether they were REALLY lying or whether they were REALLY wrong or whether they were REALLY trying to help affect the election.
I've been all-in for giving Ukraine as much assistance as practical for their counteroffensive. Now though, I'm coming around to Bob's view that it's time for Ukraine to head to the negotiating table. It's unclear if a deal is possible, but the odds of anything good coming from several more years of killing seem slim.
Despite the tragedy of it all, imo it was worth letting Ukraine take its shot at getting some land back just based on the hopes that the Russian army was still a hot mess. Unfortunately, Russian fighters appear much more formidable than they were in early 2022 and it's unlikely anything miraculous will happen if Ukraine keeps slogging along. I also agree with Bob's concern about the increasing risk of Russian gains as time goes on.
IMO, the really long game for Ukraine is to negotiate for a peace deal now that gives them a rock-solid security guarantee, integration with the west, and some help rebuilding their economy. If Ukraine plays their cards right, bolsters their institutions with a turn westward, and doesn't get bogged down with corruption, in a decade or two they'll likely be able to buy or conquer the Donbass and Crimea from what's left of a mostly failed Russian state.
Let's face it, the future of Russia is very bleak regardless of what happens in Ukraine. This recent report from BP has some very dire predictions for Russian oil and gas revenue over the next 20-30 years.
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2023.pdf
PDF page 17, report page 32 >>> As a result, Russian oil production declines from around 12 Mb/d in 2019 to between 7 and 9 Mb/d in 2035 across the three scenarios.
PDF page 21, report page 40 >>> Depending on the scenario, BP projects that global oil demand will fall from 100 mbpd today to between 35 and 80 mbpd by 2045.
If BP's middle or most aggressive projections for the drop in global oil demand come true, it will be catastrophic for Russia's economy. That's completely independent of what happens with sanctions and investment flows to Russia over the next couple of decades. Russian oil is very costly to extract compared to most other countries and as global oil demand falls, only the cheapest to extract oil will be economic. If global oil demand drops from 100 mbpd to 50 mbpd, it's a near certainty that most Russian oil will remain locked underground indefinitely, uneconomic to extract.
The likely lack of oil revenue, coupled with the near total collapse of investment inflows (that will persist even if sanctions are lifted), will seal Russia's fate of doom.
Mickey is behind the times. The country is already polarized and the left already believes the right controls the supreme court.
Imagine getting extremely deep into the campaign and Biden having a "senior moment" in a debate and being led off the stage confused like McConnell recently did(same age). Rehashing 2020 except with more toxic baggage like the Trump indictments, Hunter drama, etc. seems like a poor choice but that seems to be what America wants.